Expectancy:
what a trade is worth.
What you make on an average trade, once the wins and losses net out. It’s the one number that says whether your trading pays.
Per trade = net P&L ÷ trades
Expectancy is your net P&L divided by your trades. Put another way: your win rate times your average win, minus your loss rate times your average loss. Above zero, more trades of the same kind should add up to more money; below zero, they add up to less.
You win 40% of your trades. Winners average $300, losers $150. Each trade is worth 0.4 × $300 − 0.6 × $150 = $30, so 100 trades like these make about $3,000.
Runs in your browser: nothing you type is sent anywhere. Arithmetic, not advice.
Your expectancy, on every report.
Reports show what you make per trade, in dollars or in R, for each setup, hour and day. Tap the “i” to see the sum worked with your own trades.
- Per trade, per setup and per hour
- In dollars or in R, one tap apart
- The formula, worked with your numbers
Quick answers.
Is expectancy the same as average P&L per trade?+
Can I have a low win rate and still make money?+
Should I measure it in dollars or in R?+
How many trades does it take to trust it?+
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Free to start. Journal your first trade today and watch the numbers fill in.